I have left it some time since my last blog entry so I should start by saying happy New Year to anyone who might read this blog. I think I’m my own worst enemy when it comes to making time for writing on the blog because I tend to want hours to produce a polished and coherent article. However, this is a blog and not a piece of academic work so I’ll try and take a more relaxed attitude to blogging in 2010.
One thing that has been on my mind in the last few weeks has been the issue of climate change and global warming. In the UK we have had an extremely cold spell of weather which has caused heavy snowfalls, icy roads and travel chaos up and down the country. It’s rare, especially for those of us living in the south of England, to see such consistently cold weather and persistent snow on the ground. I have heard (or read on Facebook) several people making comments along the lines of “So this is global warming is it? I can’t see how the scientists can be telling us that the climate is warming when it’s been freezing cold and snowy for weeks”.
Perhaps this is quite a natural thing to think but I wanted to address it here because I believe that global warming is a huge problem and one that must be dealt with. It’s worth mentioning in advance that I am no scientific expert in this field, although I have studied some areas of climate change, and seen a great deal of robust scientific data, so I do feel able to discuss the topic.
What we should understand about climate change is that scientists look at average surface temperatures taken from monitoring stations in multitudes of locations across the globe. Each area provides data on the local mean (or average) surface temperature and all of these averages are then taken and collated to produce figures for the global mean surface temperature (GMST). I am not going to give references to all of those figures and sets of data here only to say that the measurements are reliable and accurate. Looking at the data it is certain that over the last century the temperature at the Earth’s surface has been warming (if not before).
The key thing to note here is that climate change is evaluated by looking at average (mean) temperatures going back over centuries of data. Isolated periods of unusually cold weather do certainly occur but that is of no direct impact to the question of whether the climate is warming. Furthermore, instances of cold weather in one region of the world may occur whilst other areas in the world see unusually hot weather; whilst people in the UK were shivering in the icy weather the residents of Melbourne in Australia were sweltering in a heat wave. During a year the weather fluctuates and we will see cold weather, hot weather, rainy weather, windy weather but none of these isolated occurrences tell us about the overall picture. That is why we need to look at the wider picture and the average temperatures globally compared to the averages in past years.
It is also very true that over the Earth’s long history the climate has experienced fluctuating high and low average temperatures. What scientists studying climate change do is to work out if the recent rises in GMST are to be expected (looking at the background of continuous climate change) or if the period of current warming is atypical. To do this they evaluate ancient temperature records which can be done through various methods (such as proportions of fossil pollen grains). The consensus is that the rate of warming we see across the globe today is unusually higher than seen in the past.
To go further into this I could now digress in to carbon dioxide levels but I was originally attempting to keep this blog relatively short - something which seems to be extremely difficult for me to achieve. As a budding biologist one of my main concerns regarding this level of warming, which is almost certainly thanks to anthropogenic activity, is the devastating environmental effects it is having. The Earth’s climate has always varied considerably due to natural causes and equally the extinction of species has always been a commonplace occurrence over the vastness of the Earth’s history. But events in recent times are not natural and since we can now understand the potential consequences it seems bizarre that we would choose not to act.
Those people who claim global warming is a huge conspiracy would do well to seek out and evaluate the scientific data for themselves. The scientific facts on this matter have no political or economical agenda; the data speaks for no organisation or pressure group but stands alone as pure factual data that we ignore at our peril. It may not be to the detriment of the current adult population if the trend of warming isn’t tackled but our children will surely suffer. What is more, the ecological and environmental consequences will not be easy to recover from and a great many species will be lost from this Earth never to evolve again.
As always, many thanks for reading.
Dominic (who, whilst writing this, realised that I too am not doing enough to make a small difference to the problems of global warming).
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